Symbian, Microsoft Not Fearing Linux Inroads In Cellular Market (Investor's Business Daily)
Brian Deagon 2 hours, 39 minutes ago
The efforts of Google and others to push open-source software in cellular networks are nothing new and won't have a big impact, say executives with Microsoft and Nokia, the largest providers of smart phone software.
Google (NasdaqGS:GOOG - News) is putting its might behind its Linux-based Android cellular platform, and some 30 big companies are backing the search king.
The move to Linux is a potential game changer because it could loosen the control that cellular carriers have over the applications they support. Also, it would give handset makers and third-party application developers greater control over market direction and trends. And Nokia's (NYSE:NOK - News) Symbian and Microsoft (NasdaqGS:MSFT - News) could lose licensing revenue.
But there's a long way to go for any of that to happen.
"We're not worried," said Jerry Panagrossi, general manager of North American operations for Symbian.
Linux-based operating systems for smart phones have been out for years but have only a 5% market share, says research firm Canalys.
Symbian has a 65% share of the smart phone operating system market. It's a consortium in which No-kia is by far the largest owner, but others with stakes include Sony Ericsson, Matsushita's (NYSE:MC - News) Panasonic, Samsung and Siemens (NYSE:SI - News). Microsoft's Windows Mobile has a 13% share, says the research firm. Next are Research In Motion (NasdaqGS:RIMM - News) with 10% and Apple (NasdaqGS:AAPL - News) at 7%, which use their own operating systems in their own smart phones, the BlackBerry and iPhone, respectively. Both have opened their platforms to third-party developers.
But Linux backers got a big boost from Google this year when it unveiled Android. Verizon Wireless gave another Linux group, LiMo, a boost when it backed that platform last month.
Symbian's Panagrossi compares the current move with what happened with PCs last decade.
"The thinking was Linux would overtake Windows," he said. "But we later saw that many Linux solution providers went out of business or sold for pennies on the dollar."
Today, observers says there could be 40 different handset operating systems on the market. Industry executives say that's far too many, and observers expect that will ultimately winnow down to just a few.
"There's going to be a blood bath in the mobile platform arena," Panagrossi said. "There are so many platforms in this market and it's an unsustainable model."
But Linux is no game-changer, says Panagrossi, citing what happened with Japan's largest wireless provider, NTT DoCoMo (NYSE:DCM - News). When DoCoMo switched to broadband wireless early this decade, it chose to only support two platforms, Symbian and a version of Linux. And Symbian captured 70% market share, Panagrossi says.
"We expect to see the same thing play out in the U.S.," he said.
Scott Rockfield, group product manager for Microsoft's Windows Mobile, has a similar view.
"There are more Linux consortiums than there are Linux phones," he said.
One attraction of the Linux platform, say backers, is that an application can run across many different handsets and networks. But Rockfield says that won't be the case. The reality, he says, is that wireless operators and handset makers would tweak the operating systems in ways that disrupt compatibility. That would lead to market fragmentation and limit Linux's growth.
"We're not too concerned," Rockfield said.